Ecosystems in the Mind: Fuzzy Cognitive Maps of the Kizilirmak Delta Wetlands in Turkey

Sustainability of ecosystems and ecosystem management are increasingly accepted societal goals. However projects of non-governmental conservation organizations (NGOs) and governments also are prone to becoming impractical impositions on local people. Can conservation programs be improved by incorporating local people’s understanding of ecosystems? The Kizilirmak Delta is one of Turkey’s most important wetland complexes with its rich biodiversity and critical habitat for globally endangered bird species. It is also one of the most productive agricultural deltas in Turkey. We have drafted, together with stakeholders, 31 cognitive models of the social and ecological system. These models were converted to adjacency matrices, analyzed using graph theoretical methods, and augmented into social cognitive maps. Causal models were run based on neural network computational methods. "What-if" scenarios were run to determine the trajectory of the ecosystem based on the ecosystem models defined by stakeholders. Villagers had significantly larger numbers of variables, more complex maps, a broader understanding of all the variables that affect the Kizilirmak Delta, and mentioned more variables that control the ecosystem than did NGO and government officials. Villagers had developed a large capacity to adapt to changing ecological and social conditions. They actively changed and challenged these conditions through the political process. Villagers were faced with many important forcing functions that they could not control. Most of the variables defined by villagers were related to agriculture and animal husbandry. Conservation policies and ecosystem management must encompass larger environmental issues that villagers raise as much as biodiversity and villagers’ cognitive maps must be reconciled with that of NGOs and government officials. Cognitive maps can serve as a basis for discussion when policies and management options are formulated. A villager-centered cognitive mapping approach is not only necessary because villagers resist conservation projects, or because top down projects that do not take local knowledge systems into account fail, but because it is the ethical and responsible way of doing ecosystem management.